Author name: Valery Manokhin

arXiv:2605.03789v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: We propose Conformal Seasonal Pools (CSP), a training-free probabilistic time-series forecaster that mixes same-season empirical draws with signed residual draws around a seasonal naive forecast. In an…

arXiv:2605.03816v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: The Brier score conflates two distinct properties of probabilistic predictions: reliability (calibration error) and resolution (discriminatory power). We introduce the Manokhin Probability Matrix, a BCG-…