Understanding When Poisson Log-Normal Models Outperform Penalized Poisson Regression for Microbiome Count Data

arXiv:2604.03853v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multivariate count models are often justified by their ability to capture latent dependence, but researchers receive little guidance on when this added structure improves on simpler penalized marginal Poisson regression. We study this question using real microbiome data under a unified held-out evaluation framework. For count prediction, we compare PLN and GLMNet(Poisson) on 20 datasets spanning 32 to 18,270 samples and 24 to 257 taxa, using held-out Poisson deviance under leave-one-taxon-out prediction with 3-fold sample cross-validation rather than synthetic or in-sample criteria. For network inference, we compare PLNNetwork and GLMNet(Poisson) neighborhood selection on five publicly available datasets with experimentally validated microbial interaction truth. PLN outperforms GLMNet(Poisson) on most count-prediction datasets, with gains up to 38 percent. The primary predictor of the winner is the sample-to-taxon ratio, with mean absolute correlation as the strongest secondary signal and overdispersion as an additional predictor. PLNNetwork performs best on broad undirected interaction benchmarks, whereas GLMNet(Poisson) is better aligned with local or directional effects. Taken together, these results provide guidance for choosing between latent multivariate count models and penalized Poisson regression in biological count prediction and interaction recovery.