The Geopolitics of AI Safety: A Causal Analysis of Regional LLM Bias

arXiv:2605.05427v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: As Large Language Models (LLMs) are integrated into global software systems, ensuring equitable safety guardrails is a critical requirement. Current fairness evaluations predominantly measure bias observationally, a methodology confounded by the inherent toxicity of topics naturally paired with specific demographics in testing datasets. This study introduces a Probabilistic Graphical Model (PGM) framework to audit LLM safety mechanisms causally. By applying Pearl's do-operator, we mathematically isolate the causal effect of injecting a cultural demographic into a prompt. We conduct a large-scale empirical analysis across seven instruction-tuned models spanning diverse origins: the United States (Llama-3.1-8B, Gemma-2-9B), Europe (Mistral-7B-v0.3), the UAE (Falcon3-7B), China (Qwen2.5-7B, DeepSeek-7B), and India (Airavata-7B). Utilizing two distinct datasets (ToxiGen and BOLD), the findings reveal a disparity between observational and interventional bias, demonstrating that standard fairness metrics can overestimate demographic bias by failing to account for context toxicity. Furthermore, the causal probabilities indicate distinct alignment trends: Western models exhibit higher causal refusal rates for specific demographic groups, whereas Eastern models demonstrate low overall intervention rates with targeted sensitivities toward regional demographics. We discuss the implications of these biases, highlighting how demographic-sensitive over-triggering restricts benign discourse in downstream applications.