Sharp Spectral Thresholds for Logit Fixed Points

arXiv:2605.15651v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Softmax feedback systems are a common mathematical core of entropy-regularized reinforcement learning, logit game dynamics, population choice, and mean-field variational updates. Their central stability question is simple: when does a self-reinforcing softmax system produce a unique and globally predictable outcome? Classical theory gives a conservative answer. By treating softmax as a unit-scale response, it certifies stability only in a strongly randomized regime. We prove that the classical approach misses an entire stable regime and does not identify the point at which the qualitative change truly occurs. For finite-dimensional affine logit systems, the sharp dimension-free Euclidean threshold is $$\beta\|\Pi W\Pi\|_{\mathcal T\to\mathcal T}<2,$$ rather than the previously used condition, which certifies stability only while the softmax system remains safely over-regularized. Our theorem fills the previously missing pre-bifurcation regime, extending stability guarantees for affine softmax feedback systems to reward-responsive yet globally predictable systems. It enlarges the certified stability boundary for these systems and identifies where the model genuinely undergoes a phase transition.