EviDep: Trustworthy Multimodal Depression Estimation via Disentangled Evidential Learning

arXiv:2604.16579v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Automated multimodal depression estimation in unconstrained environments is inherently challenged by naturalistic noise and complex behavioral variability. Prevailing deterministic methods, however, produce uncalibrated point estimates without quantifying predictive uncertainty, exposing decision-making to the risk of overconfident, untrustworthy estimates. To establish a reliable and trustworthy estimation paradigm, we propose EviDep, an evidential learning framework that jointly quantifies depression severity alongside aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties via a Normal-Inverse-Gamma distribution. To ensure the integrity of the extracted behavioral evidence and prevent artificial confidence inflation during multimodal fusion, EviDep introduces two tailored mechanisms. First, addressing the temporal-frequency heterogeneity of behavioral cues, a Frequency-aware Feature Extraction module leverages a wavelet-based Mixture-of-Experts to dynamically decouple stable macro-level affective baselines from transient micro-level behavioral bursts, effectively filtering out task-irrelevant artifacts. Second, a Disentangled Evidential Learning strategy enforces explicit decorrelation of features in these purified representations. By separating the cross-modal shared consensus from modality-specific behavioral nuances before Bayesian fusion, this rigorous disentanglement strictly prevents the model from double-counting overlapping information. Extensive experiments on the AVEC 2013, AVEC 2014, DAIC-WOZ, and E-DAIC datasets confirm that EviDep achieves state-of-the-art predictive accuracy and superior uncertainty calibration, thereby delivering a trustworthy, risk-aware decision-support tool for depression estimation.