Author name: ryan_greenblatt

In this post, I’ll go through some of my best guesses for the current situation in AI as of the start of April 2026.
You can think of this as a scenario forecast, but for the present (which is already uncertain!) rather than the future.
I will generall…

I’ve recently updated towards substantially shorter AI timelines and much faster progress in some areas.
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The largest updates I’ve made are (1) an almost 2x higher probability of full AI R&D automation by EOY 2028 (I’m now a bit below…