Affinity Is Not Enough: Recovering the Free Energy Principle in Mixture-of-Experts

arXiv:2605.00604v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Sparse MoE routing fails at domain transitions, where the current token belongs to one distribution and the next to another. In a controlled experiment (4 experts, 5 seeds), standard affinity routing assigns only 0.006 +/- 0.001 probability to the correct expert at the transition. Three lightweight gate modifications raise this to 0.748 +/- 0.002 (124x), cutting experts needed for 99% coverage from infeasible to a small constant: temporal memory (beta), a per-expert LIF membrane potential accumulating routing context across tokens; precision-weighted gating (Pi), a per-expert inverse variance of recent prediction error, yielding 31x contrast between reliable and unreliable experts; and anticipatory routing, a next-state predictor conditioned on the beta-accumulated hidden state. The mechanisms draw from Friston's Free Energy Principle and use LIF dynamics from spiking neural networks. An ablation across all 2^3 subsets reveals a super-additive beta x Ant interaction: anticipation alone gives nothing (+0.000 +/- 0.001); beta alone gives modest gain (+0.295 +/- 0.013); combined they close 75% of the oracle gap (+0.741 +/- 0.002, exceeding the sum by +0.446 +/- 0.014). This is structural: a stateless predictor cannot detect approaching transitions because pre-transition tokens are distributionally identical to within-domain tokens. In a character-level MoE LM (5 seeds), beta-routing reduces transition-step BPC from 6.56 +/- 0.01 (Standard) to 4.01 +/- 0.15 (beta-MoE); the beta + Ant gate places 0.86 +/- 0.02 probability on the correct domain expert before that domain appears in input, vs 0.42 +/- 0.12 for Standard MoE. Reference implementations (~200 lines each): https://github.com/russellwmy/affinity-is-not-enough