Training-free retrieval-augmented generation with reinforced reasoning for flood damage nowcasting

arXiv:2602.10312v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We propose R2RAG-Flood, a training-free retrieval-augmented generation framework for flood damage nowcasting with reinforced reasoning. The framework builds a reasoning-centric knowledge base from labeled tabular records, where each sample includes structured predictors, a compact text-mode summary, and a model-generated reasoning trajectory. During inference, the target prompt is augmented with geographically local neighbors and selected free-shots to support case-based reasoning without task-specific fine-tuning. A two-stage procedure first determines damage occurrence and then refines severity within a three-level Property Damage Extent (PDE) classification, followed by a conservative downgrade check for weakly supported over-severe outputs. In a Hurricane Harvey case study in Harris County, Texas, the supervised tabular baseline achieves 0.714 overall accuracy and 0.859 accuracy on the damaged classes (medium and high PDE). Across seven LLM backbones, R2RAG-Flood achieves 0.613--0.668 overall accuracy and 0.757--0.896 accuracy on the damaged classes while providing a structured rationale for each prediction. Under the severity-per-cost metric used in this study, lighter R2RAG-Flood variants are more cost-efficient than the supervised baseline and larger LLM backbones. These results demonstrate the feasibility of a reasoning-centric, training-free pipeline for flood damage nowcasting in a realistic case-study setting.