Neural Backward Filtering Forward Guiding

arXiv:2601.23030v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Inference in nonlinear continuous stochastic processes on trees is challenging, particularly when observations are sparse and the topology is complex. Exact smoothing via Doob's $h$-transform is intractable for general nonlinear dynamics. We propose Neural Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (NBFFG), a unified framework for both discrete transitions and continuous diffusions. Our method constructs a variational posterior by leveraging a proxy linear-Gaussian process. This proxy process yields a closed-form backward filter that serves as a guide, steering the generative path toward high-likelihood regions. We then learn a neural residual to capture the non-linear discrepancies. This formulation allows for an unbiased pathwise subsampling scheme, reducing the training complexity from tree-size dependent to path-length dependent. Empirical results show that NBFFG outperforms baselines on synthetic benchmarks, and we demonstrate the method on a high-dimensional inference task in phylogenetic analysis with reconstruction of ancestral butterfly wing shapes.