COSAC: Counterfactual Credit Assignment in Sequential Cooperative Teams

arXiv:2604.17693v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In cooperative teams where agents act in a fixed order and share a single team-level reward (multi-agent language systems, sequential robotic tasks), per-agent credit assignment is under-determined. Critic-based approaches scale poorly as the number of agents grows owing to the costly maintenance of joint/factored critic(s), whereas the existing critic-free alternatives have other issues: common credit across agents that couples every agent's signal to teammate noise, importance-sampling corrections for upstream-update staleness that incur variance exponential in team size, or per-agent counterfactual replay that isolates each agent's effect at the price of extra environment or reward calls. We propose COSAC, a critic-free per-agent policy gradient for sequential cooperative teams. COSAC fits an additive per-agent decomposition of the team reward by a single ridge regression on the rollout batch (giving each agent a learning signal decoupled from teammate noise), and computes each agent's counterfactual advantage from fictitious continuations of the current policy (policy forward passes that replace both importance-sampling reweighting and per-agent environment replay, at no extra environment or reward cost). The estimator instantiates the Sequential Aristocrat Utility (SeqAU), our extension of Wolpert and Tumer's (2001) aristocrat utility to sequential teams. We prove bias and variance bounds on SeqAU credits that stay controlled as the team grows. Our controlled study on sequential bandits demonstrates that COSAC attains the lowest advantage MSE and consistently low learning regret across team sizes up to $K = 16$. On the AI2 Reasoning Challenge (ARC) task, where four Qwen3-0.6B agents reason in turn about a grade-school science question, COSAC attains faster convergence than the other critic-free baselines.