Bellman Calibration for $V$-Learning in Offline Reinforcement Learning

arXiv:2512.23694v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Reliable long-horizon value prediction is difficult in offline reinforcement learning because fitted value methods combine bootstrapping, function approximation, and distribution shift, while standard guarantees often require Bellman completeness or realizability. We introduce Bellman calibration, a weak reliability criterion requiring that states assigned similar predicted values have average Bellman targets that agree with those predictions. This criterion yields a scalar calibration error for diagnosing systematic numerical miscalibration, which we estimate from off-policy data using doubly robust Bellman target estimates. We then propose Iterated Bellman Calibration, a model-agnostic post-hoc procedure that recalibrates any learned value predictor by fitting a one-dimensional map of its original prediction, with histogram and isotonic variants. We prove finite-sample guarantees showing that Bellman calibration error is controlled at one-dimensional nonparametric rates without Bellman completeness or value-function realizability. Our value-error bounds separate statistical estimation, finite-iteration, and approximation errors, clarifying when calibration improves value prediction and when its gains are limited by the information in the original predictor or insufficient coverage.