My intuition about probability doesn't match the linear distances between percentage points.
With some percentages, 51% and 49% makes all the difference, such as in company ownership and voting.
But with other percentages, 15% and 30% point estimates of timeline prediction make me wish to have a "plus or minus Knightian uncertainty" emoji, screaming in ignorance "that's basically the same number, no?!?".. the feeling is similar to my reaction when I first learned 0.1 and 1/10 are two different numbers in float32. I understand why, but also .. yuck!
If some of the variables in a world-model can change the prediction from "that's basically impossible" to "oh, it already happened", I wish smarter people than me invented better communication tools about that. Something less awkward than decibels or bits though.. something that would feel like cubic-bezier(1,0,0,1).
The least I can hope for is more examples and qualitative splits (if/else, scenarios, ...) before collapsing an estimate to a single weighted number.
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